The Media Has A Probability Problem The media’s demand for certainty — and its lack of statistical rigor — is a bad match for our complex world.

Science Isn’t Broken It’s just a hell of a lot harder than we give it credit for.

How Much Football Is Even In A Football Broadcast? NFL telecasts include a smaller share of game action than in any other major sport — even MLB.

Sources: American Community Survey, U.S. Election Atlas, ABC News Although they all have highly educated populations, these counties are otherwise reasonably diverse. The list includes major ...

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

Self-reliance helps people thrive in a landscape that’s big and tough, but it can also put them at risk if they get into a personal crisis.

With less than a year to go before the election, FiveThirtyEight’s staff members took a detailed look at seven issues we cover regularly, examining the positions of the presidential candidates ...

If you’re one of the approximately 320 million Americans who don’t live in New York City, it might seem like its Democratic mayoral primary has gotten an outsized amount of media coverage. But ...

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, Republican lawmakers have pushed new voting restrictions in nearly every state. From making it harder to cast ballots ear… ...

Ron DeSantis Ron DeSantis Probably Didn't Turn Florida Red The state was already changing in big ways before he was elected governor.

The police response to the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, in which at least 39 law enforcement officers participated, has renewed conversation about racial b… ...