US oil exports hit a record as the Iran conflict disrupts supply. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1.7% YES.

EU leaders consider activating the mutual defense clause amid US-NATO tensions. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 at 0.4% ...

A Hudson Institute report says the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to pose an asymmetric naval threat in ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the US will not renew waivers for Iranian and Russian oil purchases. The ...

Amal Khalil was killed in an Israeli strike during Lebanon ceasefire talks, but the market shows 100% confidence in a ...

Israel seeks US approval to resume military action against Iran. Permanent peace deal by April 30 at 3.1% YES.

Eric Swalwell hires a private investigator amid sexual misconduct allegations. Resignation by May 31 at 100% YES.

Victoria Coates claims Iran's leadership has "effectively collapsed." Leadership change by December 31 at 39.5% YES.

Iran claims unused missile capabilities after ceasefire ends. Iran striking Israel by April 30, 2026 at 100% YES; regime fall ...

USS Rafael Peralta enforced a blockade on an Iranian vessel. Traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz by June at 25% YES ...

US Navy authorized to fire on Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz. Blockade lift by May 31, 2026 at 63.5% YES.

US deploys a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, with the market for US escorting a commercial ship through Hormuz by ...